EURUSD and GBPUSD: Two-week low
- On Friday, the EURUSD pair fell to its two-week low at the 1.03650 level.
- At the end of last week, the GBPUSD pair reached the psychological level of 1.20000.
- The dollar held trade-sensitive currencies near multi-year lows on Monday, and the euro came under pressure as investors sought safety amid worries about slowing global growth.
EURUSD chart analysis
On Friday, the EURUSD pair fell to its two-week low at the 1.03650 level. We then saw a brief recovery to the 1.04500 level during this morning’s Asian session. A new bearish consolidation followed, and the euro again leans towards the 1.04000 support zone. We need a continuation of negative consolidation and a drop below the 1.04000 level for a bearish option. After that, we return to the critical area for the euro again as we test the 1.03500 level. A break below could take us down to the 1.03000 support zone, where we were last in 2002. For a bullish option, we need another positive consolidation and a return above 1.04500. After that, the euro could try to climb to the previous highs at 1.04880. If we stay at that level, we could also test the resistance at the 1.05000 level. A break above would open up space for us towards the next resistance zone at the 1.06000 level.
GBPUSD chart analysis
At the end of last week, the GBPUSD pair reached the psychological level of 1.20000. A quick recovery followed, but only up to the 1.21000 level. During the Asian session, the pair is maintained at that level, and we are now following the movement of this consolidation. The break below takes us to this year’s low at the 1.19350 level. For the bearish option, we need a continuation of the negative consolidation and another pullback to the 1.20000 level. Our potential lower target is the 1.19000 level. For a bullish option, we need a positive consolidation and up to the 1.22000 level. Then we must maintain ourselves at that level and try to move on. Our potential higher targets are the 1.22500 and 1.23000 resistance zones.
The dollar held trade-sensitive currencies near multi-year lows on Monday, and the euro came under pressure as investors sought safety amid worries about slowing global growth.
Data from Friday showed that inflation in the eurozone rose to another record, which will contribute to the European Central Bank raising interest rates this month. Trade is likely to be eased ahead of the Independence Day holiday in the United States.
Security flows tend to support the dollar, especially at the expense of trade and export currencies, when the world economy is weak. This kept the dollar higher, although growth fears dampened expectations of a US interest rate hike.
Australian and other commodity currencies and even the euro and sterling are likely to fall further during the week, given that markets are currently hyper-focused on the risk of a sharp slowdown in the global economy, said Carol Kong, currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
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