EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDRUB on March 15
EURUSD chart analysis
This week, the Euro is slowly recovering, moving away from last week’s low of 1.08020. Now the pair is testing the 1,10000 level, and we need a break above to continue towards last week’s high of 1.11200. Moving averages are on the bullish side, boosting optimism that the Euro may recover even more. If we succeed in that intention to climb to 1.11000 and make a break above, then our next target is the 1.12000 resistance zone from the beginning of March. We need a negative consolidation for the bearish option to bring us below 1.09500. After that, moving averages move to the bearish side and put pressure on EURUSD to go down to the first support at 1.09000. If the bearish pressure increases, we are looking for the following support in the zone around 1.08000.
GBPUSD chart analysis
The GBPUSD pair is still very close to its two-year low at 1.30000, hovering around 1.30370. We need a minimum jump above 1.30500 to get support in the MA20 and MA50 moving averages. If that happens, the pair should continue towards 1.31000 next resistance zone. At 1.31500, we come to the MA200 moving average, and then to last week’s maximum at 1.32000. For the bearish option, we need a pull below 1.30000 and below the trigger average of MA20 and MA50, which would then increase the bearish pressure. Our first support is at 1.29500, then at 1.29000, and we were here for the last time in October 2020.
USDRUB chart analysis
The USDRUB pair has been in consolidation since last Monday after the pair jumped to a record high of 154,200. Consolidation has lowered us to 110,000, and if it continues like this, we will probably drop to 100,000 psychological level. Currently, the dollar is withdrawing, which RUB uses immediately. If the movement continues within this channel, our bullish target is in the range of 124,000-128,000. Looking at the moving averages, I see the ode is on the bearish side with a view of the lower support levels. The Fed’s report on the potential change in the interest rate is expected tomorrow. The forecast is that we will see an increase from the current 0.25% to 0.50%. This news should have a positive effect on the dollar, and the pair USDRUB may rise to new historical highs.
German economic confidence fell faster than ever before in March. As the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia diminished the economic outlook, the results of a survey by the ZEV-Leibniz Center for European Economic Research showed on Tuesday.
The ZEV indicator of economic sentiment fell by 93.6 points in March to its current value of minus 39.3 points. This was the largest drop in expectations since the survey began in December 1991. The reading was also well below the economists’ forecast of plus 10.0.
At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the indicator fell by 58.2 points. Expectations are now similarly low as in the summer of 2019.
The collapse of economic expectations was accompanied by an extreme rise in inflation expectations, said ZEV President Achim Vambah.
Experts expect stagflation in the coming months. The worsening outlook affects virtually all sectors of the German economy, especially the energy-intensive sectors and the financial sector, Wambach said.
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