Overview of major pairs, dollar index and USDRUB
USDRUB chart analysis
After the Russian ruble climbed to an all-time high of 154,200 on Monday, we now have a bearish consolidation where the USDRUB pair is seeking potential support. For now, we find support at 120,000, and the pair fails to make a new break above 140,000. USDRUB has already formed twice on the lower high chart, which is a sign of the weakening dollar and the strengthening of the Russian ruble. If this trend continues, there is a chance that we will visit the psychological 100,000 level before the next stronger bullish impulse. Moving averages are on the bullish side, and based on them, and we can expect further continuation. Russia has abolished the value-added tax for gold buyers and banned the purchase of foreign currencies as a measure to strengthen its currency. The situation in Ukraine remains volatile, and any news, whether positive or negative, may affect the USDRUB.
EURUSD chart analysis
On Monday, EURUSD fell to its lowest level in two years at 1.08050. After that, we have a slight recovery and strengthening of the euro, and the pair in the previous hour was at 1.09910, testing the 1.10000 level. We can form a growing parallel canal on the chart, thus framing the current bullish movement. The Ma20 and MA50 moving averages support us, while the MA200 is in the zone of around 1.10500 levels. A EURUSD break above 1.10500 would boost bullish optimism, and then we would have a chance to move on. The negative situation in Ukraine harms the euro more than the dollar, and any news would increase the instability of this pair.
GBPUSD chart analysis
Pair GBPUSD has been in consolidation in the range of 1.31000-1.31500 over the last two days. This morning we had a more concrete shift on the chart, and the pair climbed to 1.31800. After that, we have a current withdrawal to 1.31500, and we are monitoring the situation of whether GBPUSD will retest the previous resistance zone and continue on the bullish side. The MA20 and MA50 moving averages are on the bullish side, while our MA200 is far higher at 1.33000 for now. Further recovery is possible, and the first obstacle is our zone around 1.32000, then the next, as we said at 1.33000. Bearish pressure is certainly still present due to the events in Ukraine.
AUDUSD chart analysis
On Monday, during the Asian session, AUDUSD formed a new maximum this year, climbing to 0.74500. After that, we had a pullback, and the pair found support yesterday at 0.72500. Today the situation is very bullish for this pair, and we are now at 0.73280. Looking at moving averages, we see that they have consolidated around 0.73000 and provide us with support to continue on the bullish side. The dollar index is currently making a certain pullback, and all other currencies are using it to their side. The first minor obstacle is 0.73500, and if we overcome it, the next one is waiting for us in the zone 0.74000-0.74500. For the bearish option, we need a pullback below 0.72500, and after that, we can expect the AUDUSD to drop to 0.71000 previous low of 24 February.
The dollar index is currently withdrawing from its high of 99,419 this year. We are now looking for support in the zone around 98,500. Investors are probably fed up with the dollar, and now they are waiting for this pullback to end, as they will buy additional amounts of dollars. Besides CHF and JPY, the dollar is the third safest currency for investors. We have been in the bearish trend since Monday, and we need a break below 98,500 to continue. If that happens, our target zone is 97,500-97,750. Looking at the chart, we see that the dollar has been in a growing channel since the beginning of the year with the support of all moving averages. The maximum decline, if it happens, may be to the lower trend line at 96,500. It is increasingly certain that we will see the dollar at 100,000 if the crisis around Ukraine continues.
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